Standing woman has a knee to the ground but it can completely recover

Ségolène Royal was Ségolène Royal. Two and a half years after his defeat, candidate in the presidential election of 2007 changed its status. Not only it has the favour of the opinion, but a majority of the French now disapprove his choice, his address, his strategy. It passes most, far away, for the better opponent Nicolas Sarkozy, worse, it is seen as a handicap for the opposition. Conducted in December for Canal , a BVA survey (1) shows that, for three French in four, Ségolène Royal was "rather a handicap" to the Socialist Party.Two-thirds of supporters of left think and 70 of the only supporters of the PS. It is especially positioning, strong offset with the formation of the rue de Solférino, although not in breach with it, which is sanctioned. Thus, 60 of the supporters of left and 62 of the interviewed French think that the President of the Poitou-Charentes region should "support the positions of his party."

More worrying still: if it appears to be a disservice to the PS, Ségolène Royal strategy is also seen as playing against him. His popularity has fallen to levels that it had not known for many years. In the political barometer of December TNS Sofres - Logica for "Le Figaro Magazine" (2), only 28 of the French say want to see play a role in the months and years to come. Two points just before Francois Hollande and 10 points behind the first Secretary, Martine Aubry. His very personal operation and privilege given to the short time that the media time, long time, political of reflection, have tired beyond its most faithful supporters. His slide in opinion eventually persuade of many socialist tenors Ségolène Royal is no longer a threat to themselves or a chance for 2012. Those who, in the PS, the politically finished underestimate the power of its springs and overestimate their own ability to bring together the galaxies of the left. "Standing woman" has a knee to the ground, but it can completely recover.

Three solid findings argue in this sense. The first is quite counter-intuitive: it is the bedrock of credibility which can still be supported Ségolène Royal. Faced Nicolas Sarkozy in the second round and achieved a more than Honourable score continues to characterize it as for the function with a share of the electorate. According to BVA, 39 of left supporters believe that it would be "a good President", tied with Martine Aubry (40), behind Dominique Strauss-Kahn and Bertrand Delanoë but far before all others.

The second observation is that its particular, perhaps a unique positioning, the epicenter of three worlds of the left, that the Viavoice Institute identifies as the "anti-system ecologist left", "anticonsumériste left" and "left social-liberal." To Francois Miquet-Marty, Deputy Director General of Viavoice, "one can only speak in the months to come to all these families at a time".Stay on his favourite themes, family, education and ecology, allows him to strengthen this position, potentially more inclusive than a Martine Aubry ("interventionist left") or a DSK ("left social-liberal").

In the service of this political situation, Ségolène Royal, has an intact intuition of rising from the company. Examples: she was one of the few political leaders to take the issue of stress at work, just before erupting into the contest over the suicide France Telecom series, the first to identify the unpopularity of the carbon tax... It would be a wrong to neglect this particular link with a "France of bottom" so quick to shun politics. Even though it does little in the chances of that which was very close, Senator François Rebsamen observed: "we'll see if our next candidate so voice it in the popular neighborhoods...". "Bury the old socialist présidentiable politically would be even more premature that she has already shown its ability to rebound. In September 2005, it peaked at 30 ratings in opinion polls, about its current level.

The third element is that its former Director campaign, Jean-Louis Bianco, calls an "indestructible tenacity".It is this which worries the most competitors to the PS: can she lead a Ségolène Royal gives more in addition to independence to run in 2012, marks required in claim primary François Rebsamen doubt to make rider only: "It does not eventually his political career outside the party."But all do not share this opinion. Pierre Moscovici, host workshops of the change of the PS, "to absolutely internalize Ségolène Royal", under sentence to see it go it alone. Often unacknowledged but widely shared fear to PS, as it revived "nightmare" of 2002, that a double nomination in the Socialist family and radical-socialiste, a synonym of absence in the second round. "If she sees that she has no chance in the primary, which is likely, or if it thinks that the process is not serious, what is possible, it is able to leave under his own banner, even to 10 ", summarizes a grandee of the party. It is one of the major internal challenges of the Regio-criminal: the loss of one or more regions (Champagne-Ardenne, Franche-Comté, Ile-de-France to quote more "fragile") and a wide success of Ségolène Royal in Poitou-Charentes the yield significant for 2012. With or without the PS.