At the beginning of August they are still on vacation

The meeting of the European Central Bank and the Bank of England last Thursday, then this week, the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of the Japan take investors on tenterhooks. At the beginning of August, they are still on vacation.

In their agenda, the day of Tuesday, date at which is the Federal Reserve's monetary policy Committee, is surrounded by red. For the first time in two years, the institution may decide to not raise rates. Statistics of the creations of jobs, lower expectations in July, argue in any case for a break in the cycle of monetary tightening initiated in June 2004 (see below).

Investors will still be very attentive to the communiqué issued at the end of this meeting, for clues on the future evolution of the policy of the Fed. They scruteront his analysis on inflation and growth while the decline of us markets, Friday night after the report on the employment concerns on this point remain good perennial.

Context of caution

Among other macroeconomic appointments in the United States, the operators will take knowledge Tuesday unit costs of labour, which give insight into the level of inflation, expected an increase in the second quarter. Friday, they are interested in retail sales that should have made progress in July. In Europe, look at the beginning of week industrial production in the United Kingdom and Germany in June two indices planned down and the Bank of England inflation report.

Investors will also continue to monitor the evolution of a barrel of crude, on a background of tension in the Middle East. "The geopolitical developments remains central to the capital markets, HSBC noted in his weekly letter.". A crash is unlikely but the malaise is expected to continue.

The international places, who completed the week dispersed order last the Dow Jones has posted a weekly gain of 0.18, Nasdaq down 0.43 and the DJ Stoxx 50, a loss of 0.18 on five sessions could in any case be hard to find support for a real flight deck on the side micro. In the current context of care companies in breach of the consensus are hardest sanctioned by investors this year than last year, according to a study by Reuters in the United States. Conversely, "good students" are not necessarily rewarded: companies that beat the consensus won 4.2 on the stock market, against 5.4 per cent a year earlier.

Better than average

"Uncertainties continue to weigh on the markets," commented Charles Dautresme, strategist shares in Standard & Poor's. And especially "that can expect warnings in cyclical sectors in the coming months." However, despite disappointments in the technology segment, the results season promises to be better than in the first quarter.

In Europe, on more than one third of the companies of the S & P 350 who release their quarterly, 44 were better that the forecasts and 30 are online. In the United States, where the results season is ending, the 70 beat the consensus and 18 have missed him according to data from Thomson Financial, to August 4, 411 S & P 500 companies.

These figures remain far higher averages, since, since 1994, 60 of the groups exceed expectations and 20 do less well. In total, this quarter should mark the twelfth consecutive profit growth in double digits for the S & P 500 companies.