Department of energy DoE estimates that barrel rated average 63

Oil yesterday continued his dizzying fall, the price of a barrel drop below 53 dollars in London and reaching its lowest level since January 2007. The origin of this recession more spectacular daily: the financial crisis and its impact on the economy, threatening more and more demand for crude in the short term.

This diving of the black gold may also force the Organization of petroleum exporting countries (OPEC) to hold an emergency meeting before the scheduled December 17 at Oran, Algeria. The cartel has already reduced its production month last to stem the fall of the courts, without success so far. "If oil rebounds not in the next two days, we might have to meet to discuss this abnormal situation", said the Agency Bloomberg Shokri Ghanem, Director of the oil company State Libyan.

The message was not enough to calm. New York, quality reference "light sweet crude" oil for delivery in December dropped to 55,83 dollars in session, down from 3.49 $. London, a barrel of brent from the North Sea for delivery in December gave 3.93 $ drop 51,78 $. At this rate, is approached at large not a division by three of the price of a barrel since its highest historical level of 147,27 dollars in session, reached New York on July 11.

Yesterday, the markets have reacted to statements by Nobuo Tanaka, Director General of the International Energy Agency (IEA), finding "more than likely" that the Agency should reduce again today its forecast of demand for the next year. Some analysts expect to increase limited to 300,000 barrels a day, rather than the 700,000 barrels planned so far. The financial crisis has already forced the IEA to severely revise downward its forecast of demand for 2008. It relies on only Interamericano barrels per day more, the lowest increase since 15 years. For its part, the international monetary Fund (IMF) is expected for the year next to the worst recession since 1945. "We are watching very closely the growth of China and the India," said Nobuo Tanaka yesterday. The influence of China is massive: the country represents 43 of global growth in oil demand expected by the International Energy Agency on the period from 2007 to 2030. How General are emerging countries who derive the application, while developed countries reduce their consumption.

The rise in long term

These developments do not prevent IEA build long term on a rise, given the decline in deposits. In its energy projections to 2030, published yesterday, it provides a barrel around 100 dollars in constant currency (thus excluding inflation) between 2008 and 2015, and then a course of 122 dollars in 2030. In common (including inflation), it relies on a doubling of the course by 2030, more than 200 $. "Oil prices projections rarely were also uncertain now" recognizes however the IEA. She noted that with "fluctuations imposed prices likely to remain the standard" and "spikes and temporary collapse cannot be excluded." Despite this volatility, the upward trend appears to be unanimous: the sector analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect on average to a barrel 83,50 dollars next year and 92,50 $ in 2012.

On its side, the US Government has reduced yesterday evening of 43 its forecasts of course for the next year. In its monthly report, the U.S. Department of energy (DoE) estimates that barrel rated average 63.50 dollars in 2009, while he was still on 112 dollars in October.