21 of the active population the neverseen

The car meanders in traffic of Taipei, the capital. His driver, quarantine, consistent not: "People's China, it is our chance, but also our tomb." If the 23 million inhabitants of the fourth largest economy in Asia have not notice also decided, business such as academics, they have used to say: "the future of Taiwan is in China." And this is true. China has absorbed last year 34 of the total exports of the island, against 24 in 2000. It thus became its first client, accusing with a trade deficit of $ 24 billion. The amount of flow is linked of course to investments made by Taiwan, even if they are difficult to record, given the complexity of circuits. There are direct flows (over $ 30 billion, according to official data), those that pass through Hong Kong, those who come from offshore financial centers, the Islands Cayman and especially the Virgin Islands. All would exceed $ 100 billion. And China, there is in first line, because it has absorbed in 2003 more than half of Taiwan direct investment abroad.

7,000 plants closed in 2003

Clearly, the small island located at a stone's throw from mainland China binds each year more his fate to that of the Middle Kingdom in using largely his low wages to be relocate more and activities. Silicon slices and memory cards now took precedence over textiles and toys. At present, Taiwanese ship in China electronic components (19) and the elements of computers (12.3). They send also workers, more than 3 million last year. Corollary, in 2003, this continuous transfer of activities led to the closure of some 7,000 plants at Taiwan. But with labour ten times more expensive than across the Strait, the island did a little choice, leaves to increase its unemployment rate. Last August, he touched 5.21 of the active population, the never-seen. However, through the recovery has begun, it comes down to 4.53, its lowest level since 2001.

With a GDP which is expected this year show a 4 growth, Taiwan now returns to dream and wants to forget the past three years, Moody for the most part. Must that emerges clearly its economic future.

Taiwan, companies know adapt and the show for a long time. They still come to prove it by making a breakthrough in the flat. The island has not less than 6 manufacturers and feeds already 40 of a global market in strong expansion. Indeed, while the production of flat panel displays should equal that of the cathode-ray tubes in 2007, the failover took place as early as last year.

Features to retain

Drawn by popular, progressively emptied of its know-how, China say the most pessimistic, Taiwan island must, in this unequal fight, out through the top, retaining for as long as possible some of its characteristics and a comfortable room for manoeuvre. It can now take advantage of resistance international, especially American, to cede too much know-how to its bulky neighbour. Even today, the China access to the most advanced technologies "remains clamped by the nature of its political regime, its military intentions Taiwan and, specifically, by the sanctions against Beijing (...)" "after the events of Tiananmen," noted Jean-Pierre capstan in his book (1). Foundries producing with 8-inch wafers are now allowed to relocate, yet those specialized in the 12-inch. But for how long

Obsessed by his political relations with Beijing (see below), Taiwan is almost moving its long-term economic future to the second plan. Even if some think. "We need to position ourselves us as a global logistics centre", argues for example David Hong, Vice-President of the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research. This laboratory of ideas, financed by the business community, sees the future of the island centered on "the design of products, the funding of projects and the power of brands" to leave China as "manufacturing, and therefore the plants".

Such a scheme would be bolstered by the establishment of "three direct links", postal, sea and air, key elements in the bilateral political relationship should guarantee that, at the same time safeguard the economic integration of Taiwan in China. The pace of this project depends, of course, the results of the election of the future. But businessmen dream "of a direct air line that would make the move and return to Shanghai in the day." Beyond an assessment of the real impact of these links on Taiwanese economic life is complex. The most known that they would reduce the transportation costs of 30 billion Taiwan dollars (730 million euros).

Attract talent from around the world

Without waiting for these three projects, the Taiwanese industry continues to bet the tech (50 of GDP), far ahead of the petrochemical industry (10), and explores new ways. "We are strong in high-tech in the broad sense, in digital equipment, capital markets, and we know adapt to economic conditions." "However, we have a limited innovation capacity", analysis David Hong. However, with a GDP constituted 68 by tertiary, against 30 percent for high school, the ability to mutate into depth to more services is limited.

The real advantage of Taiwan what his brains. The island already dedicated 2.3 of its GDP to research and development and wants to increase this rate to 3 in 2006. It also wants to use $ 50 billion of Taiwan (1.2 billion) of its budget to strengthen its universities and research centres. In addition, after the experiences of technological parks of Hsinchu and Tainan, it is finalizing of Taizhong (2005), dedicated to nanotechnology. At the same time, it has launched a programme to attract talent from around the world. For four or five years, the Indian engineers are more numerous. Similarly, the experimental Center for satellites is to build a Russian village. As the Chinese scientists, they jostle not. On the 4,000 nationals of China entered in January to Taiwan, "600 were with scholars or scientists" who attend conferences, says Chen Chung-hong, representing the Mainland Affairs Council. In fact, some Chinese brains "travel for training and return home," said Chun-chen Liao, Deputy Minister, the National Science Council. With respect to parties abroad, few Taiwanese still are those who return. Young do still consider their country as a springboard, while in the range of 40-45 years, those returning are creators of enterprise. "People here have an open mind." "We need to question and get in line to make Taiwan a high-tech island", for its part submits Jih-cheng Lo, a researcher at the Institute for national policy research. "If we want to avoid to be caught up by China, we must define niches with more innovation, more ideas", he explains. A bet for the moment not be won.