06 at 12908 Swiss francs and the pound sterling

Foreign exchange dealers not hide their impatience before the meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB), tomorrow. Yesterday, the information in the "Market news" Agency helped reinforce expectations of the market on the evolution of monetary policy in the euro area. According to the Agency, the majority of the members of the Board of Governors of the ECB would favour a rise in rates in May. A new gesture could follow in July, the Conference of the beginning of the month of August is not followed by a press conference in which Jean-Claude Trichet would explain the decision of the ECB. This logic is the prediction of good numbers of stakeholders.

The market significantly reassessed its estimates on the rate of refinancing of the ECB in recent weeks. The accumulation of favourable statistics made its effect. At the example of indices PMI of Directors to purchase in the euro area, published Monday. The European economy takes of the force. However, the Manufacturing ISM index testified to a settlement in the United States. In fact, the dynamics of escalation of interest rates is more favourable to the European currency and the market expects a message of firmness on the part of Jean-Claude Trichet tomorrow, promises of the movement of May. The euro is exchanged yesterday evening at 1,2255 dollar, 1.07 above its level of Monday night. The greenback also fell against the franc Switzerland ( 1.06, at 1,2908 Swiss francs) and the pound sterling. This last is appreciated 0.93, to 1,7556 dollar.

Substantial reserves in euros

For BNP Paribas, another raising might be decided by the ECB on 31 August or October 5, at the latest. In other words, the 3.25 could be achieved well before the end of the year. Ken Wattret at BNP Paribas does not exclude a rate to 3.5, external conditions and the reaction of the euro against the dollar.

The theme of the differential in interest rates is not the only theme in vogue on the foreign exchange market. Diversification of foreign exchange reserves also appears to make recipe. Yesterday, in middle of day, the words of the Governor of the Central Bank of Kuwait, Sheikh Salim Abdul Aziz al-Sabah, were sufficient to propel the euro above the bar of 1.22 dollar, up to 1,2277. Present at a Summit of central bankers of the countries of the Gulf, the Kuwaiti indicated that a substantial share of the reserves was already held in euro and that the institution supervised the attractiveness of the single currency. "We sold our last year's euros when the currency was higher, but we could buy in," said his counterpart of the Qatar, Sheikh Abdullah bin Khaled al-Attiyah. The policy of the Central Bank provides that it can hold up to 40 of its reserves in euros and up to 90 in dollars. The United Arab Emirates, which members of the Central Bank met Monday, finally postponed their decision on the subject. "We are not against the purchase of euros, but we have postponed our decision at our next meeting in a month," said the Governor.

Beyond the Arab oil producing countries, attention also turned to China. According to the daily "Wen Wei" of Hong Kong, recounting the words of one of the ten vice-responsables of the Chinese Parliament, Cheng Siwei, China could gradually stop its purchases of us state loans and expand the band of fluctuation of the yuan. The People Bank of China, the Central Bank, said however that these comments reflect the views of its author and did not involve the institution.

The yen lagged

Losing other currencies, the yen has not fully benefited from the weakness of the dollar yesterday. The latter is bent "only" about 0.29 to 117,51 yen. While he had given its approval to the Bank of Japan for the abandonment of its policy monetary quantitative early March, the Government again expressed reservations on the sequence of events, notes the change of the Société Générale team. Yesterday, Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki warned against too rapid change of monetary policy in the Japan. "If the balance of current accounts down too and the market began to speculate on our ability to intervene, there is a risk that it creates an undesirable volatility on the foreign exchange market", he warned.