The fundamentals of the companies appear so healthy

"The stock market is a very expensive way to test his own temperament," said the lights Adam Smith Economist. Savers have discovered to their cost. 2000-2009 A decline of 34 for the lighthouse of the dung of Paris (CAC 40) index, worse for European index (Euro STOXX 50) fell by 40. A decade for nothing, therefore, while the stock market is expected to be the best placement in the long term... The two major crises in 2002 and 2008 lasting undermined the confidence of the French. Only 4 of them say they are now likely to buy shares, according to the latest poll TNS Sofres for "Les echos" and La Banque Postale ("Les Echos" of December 6). At the same time, gold - King placement when fear settled-, but also real estate or life insurance (guaranteed EUR Fund) have performed wonders, with respective valuations of 281, 106 and 54 over the Decade.

What about at the dawn of the year 2011 A hear professionals, should be back in stock bath, only means, according to them, find performance next year. Difficult to accept for those who have lost much in the stock market. And yet. "In the current context, it should almost choose default actions", argues Frédéric master, Deputy General Manager of Somangest.

Return of growth

"Safe investments, such as the monetary or sovereign obligations, have very low, even negative gain opportunities where interest rates could go up," confirms Jean-Michel Stark, Director of the offer at HSBC Private Bank France.

Many arguments argue for a return on the stock market. First, European companies are in good health, they took advantage of the crisis to operate of wide restructuring, encouraging for the future. They often have the cash available, they could use to increase dividends, buy back their own shares, or even to engage in movements of rapprochement with other companies. In short, operations are still profitable for the shareholder. Then, and it is a paradox, the recovery of European titles are at a low level the historical average, which means that certain actions are not expensive (see article below). Finally, "growth is back, even if it is at several speeds", according to Luc Lefer, responsible for the management private under a mandate in BNP Paribas Private Bank. Expected below 2 in Europe next year, it is expected to reach 9 in Asia. Yet Western companies, major exporters, will also benefit. The fundamentals of the companies appear so healthy.

Macroeconomic hazards

The scenario of crisis aside, return remains the macroeconomic environment. Sovereign debt, risk on some peripheral countries such as the Portugal, or even much more serious, on the Spain... The landscape is still not really stabilized and markets shares could suffer next year, as was already the case in 2010. Volatility should therefore remain high. But this is not a reason, according to professionals, to walk away from the markets. When it comes, it is at least for five years, they say, is the time to absorb a... potential shock. "Test his own temperament", this will be discussed in 2011.